- Political turmoil in Russia and concerns of global recession partially fuel WTI’s rebound.
- Weak business climate in Germany and China’s decelerating growth threaten oil demand.
- Saudi Arabia’s crude output adjustments might spur WTI’s recovery toward $70 per barrel.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, snaps two days of losses and climbs more than 0.50% amidst global economic concerns of an impending recession and political turmoil in Russia. Therefore, WTI is trading at $69.49 per barrel late in the North American session after hitting a daily low of $68.71.
US crude oil climbs 0.50% late in the Noth American session as it shrugs off global economic jitters
During the weekend, a conflict erupted between Moscow and the Russian mercenary private group Wagner which withdrew from the south of Russia, marched towards Moscow but halted their advance, but stalled due to an agreement between its leader and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Regarding the worldwide economic outlook, last Friday’s release of Eurozone (EU) and North American business activity indicators, known as PMIs, pointed to slower economic growth. Therefore, WTI slid 0.60% on Friday, closing below the $70.00 per barrel figure, on concerns that demand would shrink.
Even though WTI recovered some ground, the rally stalled on the back foot of a weaker business climate in Germany, as the Ifo survey showed signs the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would shrink in Q2.
Moreover, recent rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) showed China’s struggling to keep its pace of growth, which has been downward revised by some Wall Street banks. That, alongside decelerating business activity in China, threatens to hurt oil demand.
Oil got a lifeline as future US supply numbers fell for the eighth week in a row, for the first time since July 2020, with oil rigs falling 6 to 546 the latest week, its lowest since April 2022, while gas rigs held steady at 130.
Given the fundamental backdrop, WTI fell 3.6% during the last week, but Saudi Arabia’s crude output adjustments could trigger WTI’s recovery at least towards the $70.00 mark.
WTI Price Analysis: Technical outlook
From a daily chart perspective, WTI remains trading sideways, consolidating at around $68-$70.50 per barrel, capped on the upside by several daily Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA sits at $70.65, followed by the 50-day EMA at $72.10. If WTI buyers conquer those two-level, that will open the door to challenge the 100-day EMA at $74.24. Conversely, if WTI drops below June’s 23 daily low of $67.40, that would pave the way to test the year-to-date (YTD) low of $63.61.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces off lows, retests 1.1370
Following an early drop to the vicinity of 1.1310, EUR/USD now manages to regain pace and retargets the 1.1370-1.1380 band on the back of a tepid knee-jerk in the US Dollar, always amid growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war.
GBP/USD trades slightly on the defensive in the low-1.3300s
GBP/USD remains under a mild selling pressure just above 1.3300 on Friday, despite firmer-than-expected UK Retail Sales. The pair is weighed down by a renewed buying interest in the Greenback, bolstered by fresh headlines suggesting a softening in the rhetoric surrounding the US-China trade conflict.
Gold remains offered below $3,300
Gold reversed Thursday’s rebound and slipped toward the $3,260 area per troy ounce at the end of the week in response to further improvement in the market sentiment, which was in turn underpinned by hopes of positive developments around the US-China trade crisis.
Ethereum: Accumulation addresses grab 1.11 million ETH as bullish momentum rises
Ethereum saw a 1% decline on Friday as sellers dominated exchange activity in the past 24 hours. Despite the recent selling, increased inflows into accumulation addresses and declining net taker volume show a gradual return of bullish momentum.
Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets
Barrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.