Wild opex and three black crows

Ever since Wednesday, Nasdaq found no respite with very few S&P 500 sectors providing refuge. Even Russell 2000 – one of my key picks for clients after CPI – started to undergo a healthy correction off very overbought levels. The fundamental backdrop of rates going lower and USD to ultimately follow suit too, has not changed – but the path main indices are taking, warrants a pause for the bulls.

Also during Friday‘s opex and no key data releases, the momentum was down (it wasn‘t about MSFT-CRWD fallout) and market breadth improvements were insufficient. Next week, GDP and core PCE are the key macro turning points – I‘m sharing the weekly path ahead for indices in the premium section. Till then, we have just earnings and crucially guidance to rely on – and the ASML, TSM, AMZN with quite some financials were telling already.

Whoever guides lower or just barely meets expectations, isn‘t rewarded – and while some domestic oil companies are waking up, there can be no sustained push higher unless tech / financials lead. For now, earnings ahead aren‘t broadly questioned and rate cuts are celebrated – for now, we have to look at other leaders and take advantage intraday whether in futures or options.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.