When is the US March PCE Price Index and how could it affect EUR/USD?


US PCE Price Index Overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the March Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The headline gauge is expected to edge higher from 6.4% YoY in February to 6.5% during the reported month. The core reading, however, is anticipated to have eased to 5.3% YoY in March from 5.4% previous and rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, down from 0.4% in February.

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, a sharp US dollar corrective pullback assisted the EUR/USD pair to snap a six-day losing streak to its lowest level since January 2017 touched the previous day. That said, expectations that the Fed would adopt a more aggressive policy response to curb soaring inflation should act as a tailwind for the buck. Stronger PCE figures will reinforce market bets and provide a fresh lift to the greenback.

Conversely, softer-than-expected readings might prompt traders to continue unwinding their USD bullish bets and offer additional support to the major, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Concerns about the economic fallout from the ongoing Ukraine crisis might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the shared currency. This, in turn, suggests that any further move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest trend seems to have formed a key resistance level at 1.0600. In case the pair rises above that level and makes a four-hour close there, the next recovery target could be seen at 1.0660 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) ahead of 1.0700 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 50-period SMA on the four-hour chart).”

“Ideally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which is currently located at around 40, would rise above 50 in such a move, possibly attracting additional buyers. On the downside, interim support aligns at 1.0520 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0470 (multi-year low set on April 28),” Eren added further.

Key Notes

  •   EUR/USD Forecast: Euro eyes 1.0660 as next recovery target

  •   US Dollar Index comes under pressure near 103.00 ahead of PCE

  •   EUR/USD: Limited correction to 1.0560/70, with outside risk to 1.0650 – ING

About the US PCE Price Index

The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the USD.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD languishes near multi-year lows below 0.6250 after dovish RBA Minutes

AUD/USD languishes near multi-year lows below 0.6250 after dovish RBA Minutes

AUD/USD remains depressed below 0.6250 early Tuesday after the December RBA Minutes reiterated that upside inflation risks had diminished, which reaffirms bets for a rate cut in early 2025. This, along with concerns about China's fragile economic recovery and US-China trade war, undermines the Aussie and weighs on the pair.

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY eases toward 157.00 after Japanese verbal intervention

USD/JPY eases toward 157.00 after Japanese verbal intervention

USD/JPY has come under renewed selling pressure, easing toward 157.00 after Japanese Finance Minister Kato's verbal intervention. The pair erased early gains, induced by the October BoJ meeting Minutes. However, the downside could be limited as the US Dollar hold the previous rebound. 

USD/JPY News
Gold: Buyers defends $2,600 ahead of holiday trading week

Gold: Buyers defends $2,600 ahead of holiday trading week

Gold price defends the $2,600 mark in the Asian session on Tuesday as buyers look to regain control. Markets face a relatively quiet trading session ahead of the holiday trading week. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December will be watched out for later on Tuesday. 

Gold News
Solana dominates Bitcoin, Ethereum in price performance and trading volume: Glassnode

Solana dominates Bitcoin, Ethereum in price performance and trading volume: Glassnode

Solana is up 6% on Monday following a Glassnode report indicating that SOL has seen more capital increase than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite the large gains suggesting a relatively heated market, SOL could still stretch its growth before establishing a top for the cycle.

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures