When is the UK GDP and how could it affect GBP/USD?

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

UK Q4 GDP Overview

The UK docket sees the final Q4 2018 GDP, which will be published later this session at 0930 GMT. The second estimate of the United Kingdom GDP growth is expected to arrive at 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The annualized reading is expected to confirm the first readout of 1.3% in Q4.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.5 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 70 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The spot could extend the fresh leg lower on a downside surprise in the GDP figures and test the 1.3000 support zone. On a better GDP print, the GBP/USD pair could attempt to regain the 1.31 handle.

Technically, “a subsequent slide back towards challenging the key 1.30 psychological mark, and the very important 200-day SMA support near the 1.2980 region, now looks a distinct possibility. A follow-through selling below monthly lows, around the 1.2960 level, now seems to pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move back towards the 1.2900 round figure mark. On the flip side, the 1.3100-10 region now seems to cap any attempted recovery move and is followed by the trend-line support break-point, now turned resistance near the 1.3160 area. A follow-through uptick might trigger a short-covering move and lift the pair back towards reclaiming the 1.3200 handle en-route weekly tops, near the 1.3260-70 heavy supply zone,” Haresh Menghani, Analysts at FXStreet, writes.

Key Notes

Brexit and US inflation amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

GBP/USD has more room to the downside ahead of the Brexit WA vote — Confluence Detector

GBP futures: neutral/bearish near term

About the UK GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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