Four days before the second and final round of French presidential election, two candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, will face off for one last time in a high-stake live televised debate on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT.
Key notes:
The discussion between the pro-European Macron, a 39-year-old former investment banker, and far-right leader Le Pen, the 48-year-old scion of the National Front party, is planned to last for 2 hours and 20 minutes but is likely to go on for longer. The debate will be broadcast live on the French TV channels TF1 and France 2.
Commenting on the importance of the debate, "this is a showdown in which both candidates will be aiming for a knockout, or to at least land several good jabs. Both candidates are intensely prepping for the debate. As a matter of fact, both Macron and Le Pen cleared their schedules in the 48 hours leading up to it," said Christian Delporte, a French historian specialized in the political and cultural history of France in the twentieth century.
Opinion polls of viewers will be published within an hour of the debate, which will give a good idea of which candidate came on top. The latest election polls showed that Macron was leading by 59% to 41%. Although he dropped a couple of points in polls since he was leading by 61% following the first round of the election, he still is the heavy favorite to become the next president of France and tonight's debate will be the last chance for Le Pen to close the gap.
Implications for EUR
The debate seems to be overshadowed by tonight's FOMC meeting, but considering how the market reacted after the first TV debate, we may witness sharp fluctuations especially in euro-denominated assets. The Fed's decision will be released an hour before the debate goes underway and the EUR/USD pair could start showing increased volatility ahead of the debate. Looking at the recent technical levels, 1.10 (psychological level) could be seen as the initial target for EUR/USD ahead of 1.1070 (Nov. 1 high) and 1.1130 (Nov. 4 high) if anti-EU candidate Le Pen loses the debate, increasing the demand for the euro. In addition to EUR/USD, the EUR/JPY and the EUR/GBP pairs could gather a strong bullish momentum. An improved risk sentiment would put the safe-haven JPY under a broad based selling pressure, and the GBP could quickly lose demand amid Brexit concerns. Th EUR/JPY pair could aim for 123.30 (Jan. 27 high) ahead of 123.70 (Jan. 9 high) and 124.10 (Dec. 15 high). The EUR/GBP pair could make another attempt at 0.8530 (Last week's high after the first round of the election), and extend its rise towards the 0.8590/0.8600 area (Apr. 4 high/psychological level).
On the other hand, if the market assesses the debate as a factor that could increase the chances of Le Pen winning the second round, the euro could come under a heavy selling pressure against its rivals and push the EUR/USD pair down towards 1.0775 (200-DMA) and 1.0685 (100-DMA). Supports for EUR/JPY could be seen at 118.90 (Apr. 24 low), 118 (psychological level) and 116.45 (Apr. 21 low). The EUR/GBP pair could slip to 0.8400 (Apr. 28 low) ahead of 0.8320 (Apr. 18 low).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/european-euro-coin-on-top-of-american-dollar-bill-11292130_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
![GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-157771037_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
![Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/gold-bars-50657756_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
![Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/america-back-to-work-gm178972493-25143312_XtraSmall.jpg)
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
![Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/Countries/Europe/Eurozone_countries/Eurozone/eu-flags-flying-at-the-european-commission-building-brussels-belgium-24759579_XtraSmall.jpg)
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.