June month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Employment Change could rise by 15.0K versus the previous contraction of 75.9K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.9% during the stated month.
Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest pause in the rate hike trajectory, as well as the mixed inflation clues from Australia, today’s Aussie inflation expectations and employment numbers appear more important for the AUD/USD pair.
Ahead of the event, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik mentioned,
The AUD/USD pair will likely react to how the employment figures impact future RBA decisions rather than the number themselves. If the outcome is much better than anticipated, it will be read as a potential hike in August, which can negatively affect local markets. A risk-off run among stocks could well push AUD/USD lower, despite positive figures.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD picks up bids to pare recent losses at the weekly low, mildly bid near 0.6780 as it snaps four-day losses by the press time. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the pre-data positioning, as well as cheers the US Dollar’s retreat amid mixed clues about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and China.
That said, today’s Australian employment report for June is less likely to work as a positive catalyst for the AUD/USD unless posting an extremely upbeat outcome. The reason could be linked to the market’s previous favor for the US Dollar despite the mixed Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns and downbeat US data. However, a knee-jerk reaction to the top-tier statistic can’t be ruled out.
Technically, the pair’s sustained downside break of horizontal support stretched from April 2023, around 0.6780, allows AUD/USD to aim for the 200-DMA support of around 0.6715.
Key Notes
AUD/USD prods four-day downtrend below 0.6800 amid anxiety ahead of Australia employment data
Australian Employment Preview: Good news could be bad news for the RBA
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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