January month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, whereas Employment Change could rise by 20.0K versus the previous contraction of 14.6K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at the 66.6% prior level.
It should be noted that Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations for February, expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%, could also entertain AUD/USD traders around 00:00 GMT on Thursday.
Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers’ struggle to defend the hawkish bias and the fears of higher inflation, today’s Aussie jobs report has become crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,
Illness-related absences and a ‘catch-up’ in abnormally low summer leave should see employment growth print slightly below the trend in January (Westpac forecast 15K, market 20K, rebounding from December’s -15K). With participation holding flat, Westpac expects the unemployment rate to keep at 3.5%, in line with consensus.
On the same, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik mentioned,
Indeed, sharp deviations one way or the other could trigger near-term volatile moves in AUD/USD. But after the dust settles, the pair will likely return to sentiment-related trading, focusing on the US Dollar and whatever speculative interest believes about the United States Federal Reserve.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD remains sidelined near 0.6900 while licking its wounds near the weekly low, following the biggest daily slump in a fortnight, as the Aussie pair traders await crucial jobs report amid sluggish market hours.
Although the pre-data anxiety probes AUD/USD bears amid hopes of upbeat Aussie data, the risk barometer pair is likely to remain depressed after showing an initial reaction to the actual outcome unless witnessing too optimistic Aussie employment numbers. The reason could be linked to comparatively more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, backed by stronger US data.
Technically, a U-turn from the 3.5-month-old previous support line keeps AUD/USD bears hopeful, but the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA challenge the Aussie pair’s further downside around 0.6885 and 0.6800, respectively.
Key Notes
Australian Employment Preview: Better figures in the docket, doubtful impact on RBA
AUD/USD licks its wounds near 0.6900 ahead of Aussie employment data
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. An increase indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to the weakening of the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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