German IFO Business Climate Overview

The German Ifo surveys are lined up for release later today at 9GMT. The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to edge lower to 109.6 in Feb. The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen lower at 116.7 this month, while the Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is expected to follow suit and come in a tad weaker at 116.7 in Feb, as compared to January’s 103.2 reading.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

The Surveys are expected to show deterioration in the business conditions in Germany, which could add to the recent bearish momentum behind the EUR/USD pair, and hence, could knock-off the rate to 1.0500 levels. On an upside surprise, the EUR/USD pair could extend the corrective gains and eye a test of 1.06 handle.

Key notes

Market movers for the day – Rabobank

“Next up it is the German IFO survey, which is expected to edge down slightly but may surprise to the upside after the good set of PMI data in Europe yesterday.”

About German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

1 Week
1 Month
1 Quarter

1 Week

Avg Forecast 1.0635

43% Bullish
57% Bearish
0% Sideways

Bias Bearish

1 Month

Avg Forecast 1.0659

40% Bullish
40% Bearish
20% Sideways

Bias Neutral

1 Quarter

Avg Forecast 1.0419

11% Bullish
68% Bearish
21% Sideways

Bias Bearish

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