When is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Anil Panchal FXStreet

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview

Having witnessed official readings of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) during the weekend, markets brace for Caixin Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, in order to determine near-term trade direction of AUD/USD.

While downbeat data at home and escalating trade tension between the US and China keep worrying the Aussie traders, buyers will be extra-cautious of any dovetailing data coming out of China. Macro consensus favors the private activity gauge to remain mostly unchanged with 49.8 mark versus 49.9 flashed during the month of July.

Westpac also follows the market consensus while saying, “the unofficial China manufacturing PMI (Markit/Caixin) for Aug is due at 11:45 am Syd/9:45 am local. A similar reading to Jul’s 49.9 headline index is expected.”

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With the AUD/USD pair trading near 0.6700 round-figure, tested twice during August, a disappointing print of PMI can further push the quote towards previous month’s low around 0.6677. However, a surprise reading of above 50.00 will shift traders’ attention to bullish signal by the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) and can trigger the pair’s pullback towards 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6761. It should also be noted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains its dovish bias and further weakening of the global Treasury yields exert additional downside pressure on the Aussie pair.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bars back in control in early Asia open, eye test of 0.67 the figure

AUD/USD Analysis: struggling to retain the 0.6700 level

About the China Caixin PMI

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.