When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to rebound to 0.1% m/m in October, while on an annualized basis, retail sales are seen ticking lower to -0.6%. In September, retail sales were seen at -0.8% over the month and 1.2% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.0% m/m and -0.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0930 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A stronger retail sales report could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above 1.3200 barrier. While GBP/USD could breach 1.3150 support should the data disappoint the markets.

According to Jim Langlands at FX Charts, “further choppy trade near current levels would not really surprise although the UK Retail Sales figures are due today and may cause some volatility.”

Technically, “on the topside, resistance will again be seen at 1.1.3200, while back above 1.1.3213 would find good offers at around 1.3230, beyond which could see a run back to 1.3250 and eventually to 1.3300. On the downside, support will be now seen at 1.3130 and at 1.3115 ahead of the rising trend support/14 Nov low at 1.3075 and then at 1.3000 although I don’t think we head down here today,” Jim adds.

Key notes

UK retail sales and Eurozone CPI in focus – TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for UK retail sales to post a 0.5% m/m gain in October (mkt 0.2%), supported by warmer than usual weather and stronger activity suggested by the services PMI.

About UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD meets initial support around 1.1800

EUR/USD remains on the back foot, although it has managed to reverse the initial strong pullback toward the 1.1800 region and regain some balance, hovering around the 1.1850 zone as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. Moving forward, market participants will now shift their attention to the release of the FOMC Minutes and US hard data on Wednesday.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, retargets 1.3550

After bottoming out just below the 1.3500 yardstick, GBP/USD now gathers some fresh bids and advances to the 1.3530-1.3540 band in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Cable’s recovery comes as the Greenback surrenders part of its advance, although it keeps the bullish bias well in place for the day.

Gold remains offered below $5,000

Gold stays on the defensive on Tuesday, receding to the sub-$5,000 region per troy ounce on the back of the persistent move higher in the Greenback. The precious metal’s decline is also underpinned by the modest uptick in US Treasury yields across the spectrum.

Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine extends ETH buying streak, says long-term outlook remains positive

Ethereum (ETH) treasury firm BitMine Immersion continued its weekly purchase of the top altcoin last week after acquiring 45,759 ETH.

UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes

In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.

Ripple slides to $1.45 as downside risks surge

Ripple edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.