US Durable Goods Orders overview
The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly Durable Goods Orders data for February at 12:30 GMT this Friday. The report is expected to show that headline orders rose by 0.6% during the reported month, which will represent a modest rebound from the 4.5% sharp fall reported in January. Orders excluding transportation items, which tend to have a broader impact, are anticipated to register a 0.2% growth in February as compared to the 0.8% rise recorded in the previous month.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key macro data, a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade assists the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to gain strong follow-through traction on Friday and build on the previous day's goodish recovery from a seven-week low. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the EUR/USD pair's sharp intraday slide back closer to the 1.0700 mark. A stronger US macro data might force investors to scale back their expectations for an imminent pause of the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle and would be enough to provide an additional boost to the Greenback.
Conversely, a weaker report will add to worries about a deeper global economic downturn and further take its toll on the global risk sentiment. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD is to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of the EUR/USD pair's ongoing retracement slide from its highest level since February 03, around the 1.0930 region touched on Thursday.
Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and writes: “EUR/USD broke below the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart declined slightly below 60 after having stayed in overbought territory early Thursday, suggesting that buyers have moved to the sidelines.”
Eren also outlines important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “On the downside, 1.0820 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) aligns as immediate support. In case the pair falls below that level and starts using it as resistance, the downward correction could extend toward 1.0760 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0720 (50-period SMA).”
“First resistance is located at 1.0850 (static level) ahead 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0930 (multi-week high set on Thursday),” Eren adds further.
Key Notes
• EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could extend correction if 1.0820 support fails
• EUR/USD comes under heavy pressure and breaches 1.0800
• EUR/USD: 1.1000 can be tested quite soon – ING
About US durable goods orders
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.