When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK Economic Data Overview

The British economic calendar is all set to entertain the cable traders during the early hours of Wednesday, at 06:00 GMT with the monthly release of August 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Also increasing the importance of that time are Trade Balance and Industrial Production details for the stated period. It’s worth noting that the Bank of England’s (BOE) intervention amplifies the importance of today’s UK data dump for the GBP/USD pair traders.

Having witnessed an expansion of 0.2% in economic activities during July 2022, market players will be interested in August month’s GDP figures to confirm the fears of an economic slowdown.

Forecasts suggest that the UK GDP will mark stagnation of the British economy with 0.0% MoM figures for August. GBP/USD traders also await the Index of Services (3M/3M) for the same period, likely to improve to 0.2% versus -0.2% prior, for further insight.

Meanwhile, Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to ease to 0.0% MoM in August. Also, the total Industrial Production is expected to improve to -0.2% versus -0.3% previous figures.

Considering the yearly figures, the Industrial Production for August is expected to have eased to 0.6% versus 1.1% previous while the Manufacturing Production is anticipated to have dropped by 0.8% in the reported month versus 1.1% the last.

Separately, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported at the same time, prior £-7.793B.

How could affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD languishes around a two-week low, down for the sixth consecutive day, while keeping the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey-led losses ahead of the key UK data dump. The pair’s latest downside also takes clues from the firmer US Dollar Index (DXY) and the yields, not to forget fears of economic slowdown.

Given the increasing push to the BOE towards following the hawkish Fed, mainly due to the newly elected PM Liz Truss’ failure to impress British locals with their new strategies, the GBP/USD may witness further downside in the case of downbeat data. It’s worth noting, however, that major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

That said, a positive surprise from the scheduled British statistics may, however, could offer only a kneejerk bounce amid broad pessimism.

Technically, Not even short-term buyers can think of GBP/USD unless the quote rises past the convergence of the 21-DMA and 10-DMA, around 1.1165-70.

Key notes

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bears stay the course despite break of trendline resistance 

GBP/USD steadies below 1.1000 after BOE’s Bailey favored bears, UK data, Fed Minutes eyed

About the UK Economic Data

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered a broad measure of the UK's economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Manufacturing Production released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.