|

What past US presidential elections tell us about future trends in S&P 500 [Video]

With the U.S. election just around the corner, traders and investors are examining historical market patterns to anticipate potential moves. By analyzing past market structures, particularly from the 2016 and 2020 elections, we might glean some valuable insights into what could happen next. Here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Accumulation and reaccumulation patterns: Historical data from previous election years, like 2016 and 2020, shows accumulation structures where the market builds up momentum, often followed by an uptrend. In 2020, there was a clear breakout and retest, leading to a strong rally.

  • Pre-election volatility: One week before both the 2016 and 2020 elections, volatility and trading volume spiked. This increase could be a reaction to uncertainty around the election, creating opportunities for sharp market moves.

  • Post-election reactions: After election day, the market often enters a new phase. For both 2016 and 2020, we saw significant bullish movements post-election, with trends lasting nearly a year before another major shift.

  • Current structure: The present market setup is showing similar characteristics, such as a "sign of strength" rally and decreasing supply. This structure could hint at another upward trend following the election.

Watch the video below to find out the detailed analysis of the analogue comparison from the election years in 2016 and 2020.

Author

Ming Jong Tey

Ming Jong Tey

Independent Analyst

Ming Jong Tey has been trading since 2008. He started his learning journey from technical analysis (indicators, Fibonacci, etc...) to value investing. Throughout his journey, he develops an interest in price action with chart pattern trading.

More from Ming Jong Tey
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eyes nine-day EMA barrier after rebounding from 1.1600

EUR/USD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1620 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair remains within the descending channel pattern.

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling ticks up against US Dollar in countdown to US NFP

The Pound Sterling trades marginally higher to near 1.3365 against the US Dollar during the Asian trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks down ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls data for February, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Gold awaits US Nonfarm Payrolls for a clear directional impetus

Gold rebounds above $5,100 early Friday after testing the $5,050 level amid global sell-off. The US Dollar pulls back as profit-taking creeps in ahead of US labor data. For February. 21-day SMA holds amid bullish RSI; a daily closing above 61.8% Fibo is critical for Gold buyers.

Top Crypto Gainers: Lombard, Humanity Protocol, OKB rally on US Fed’s tokenized securities clarity, NYSE investment

Lombard, Humanity Protocol, and OKB rally over the last 24 hours, securing the top-gainer spots in the early Asian session. The US Federal Reserve issued clarity on tokenized securities, which expands its utility and reduces regulatory friction with US banks, driving the Real-World Assets tokenization crypto projects. 

The market compass is pointing at a barrel of Oil

The Asian open is arriving with equities leaning the wrong way, and the reason is not complicated. The market’s compass needle has snapped firmly toward crude. In this tape, oil is not just another input price; it is the gravitational center around which every asset class is orbiting.

Ripple tests recovery strength amid steady ETF inflows, growing retail interest

Ripple (XRP) continues to demonstrate notable resilience as the cryptocurrency market navigates the persistent war in the Middle East after the United States (US) and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday.