We maintain a forecast of EUR/USD 1.02 on a 3-month view – Rabobank


Jane Foley, the Senior FX Strategist and Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank's RaboResearch is out with a note highlighting the risk for a deterioration in Euro-area economics, seeing a case for the EUR/USD to reach 1.02 over the next quarter.

Germany’s woes

For the past year, the phrase ‘sick man of Europe’ has frequently been applied to Germany. There would appear to be as many commentators that disagree with this judgement as those that think it appropriate. Both groups, however, tend to concur that Germany needs structural reforms.

The size of Italy’s debt is drawing more attention. The country’s far-right government has recently revised up its forecast for Italy’s deficit/GDP ratio next year so that it can meet its manifesto promises. This raises the chances of conflict with Brussels.

Even though we expect the US to fall into technical recession early next year, the likelihood of a downturn in both the Eurozone and the US, combined with slow growth for China, suggests that the USD will be supported by safe haven flows well into 2024. We maintain a forecast of EUR/USD 1.02 on a 3-month view. 

According to the OECD, Germany’s economic outlook this year will be the second worst (after Argentina) in the group of countries that it assesses. The IMF predicts a -0.5% contraction for Germany this year. 

The ECB recently revised down its forecasts for Eurozone growth significantly, though compared with our house view, these still appear optimistic. We expect the Eurozone to be in technical recession in H2 this year and for growth next year to be a meagre 0.5%.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures