Global markets have been shaken by a sudden escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict after Ukraine used US-supplied long-range missiles for a strike in Russian territory and Moscow lowered the threshold for response using nuclear weapons. So far, this has translated to some noise in the FX market, but no big moves. We suspect the dynamics in US Dollar (USD) crosses were partly still affected by the USD’s overbought positioning status, which may have contributed to curbing geopolitics-related gains, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Less resistance to a fresh leg higher in the Greenback
“In other words, markets seem to be cautiously leaning towards a sanguine view on Ukraine, meaning any further escalations should have a much deeper impact on FX. European currencies (excluding CHF) are inevitably the most vulnerable, whereas high-beta currencies that are geographically far from the conflict (like CAD or AUD) should only be affected indirectly through risk-off. The oversold JPY probably has the highest upside potential from an escalation.”
“The US calendar is still quiet and the only focus today will be on a few Fed speakers, including the dovish-leaning Barr and Cook and the more neutral Williams and Collins. An interesting development on the macro side, however, was yesterday’s release of state payrolls, which allows us to calculate the actual impact of the hurricane on the soft October country-wide print (12k). Our US economist crunched the numbers and estimates that the payroll figure would have been around 121k without the hurricane and strike activities.”
“We expect at least 100k of ‘technical’ rebound in the November payroll print, which raises the bar for a hawkish surprise from the Fed. We recently highlighted the potential for a positioning-driven USD correction. With the recent increase in geopolitical risk, it appears that the risks for the USD are now more balanced, and we may see less resistance to a fresh leg higher in the greenback.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends losses to 1.0550 after ECB Negotiated Wages data
EUR/USD holds lower ground near 1.0550 in European trading on Wednesday. The US Dollar resurgence alongside the US Treasury bond yields higher weighs on the pair. Meanwhile, ECB reported Negotiated Wage Rates rose 5.42% in Q3 but this data failed to support the euro.
GBP/USD reverses toward 1.2650, erases UK CPI-led gains
GBP/USD is falling back toward 1.2650 in the European session on Wednesday, having erased UK CPI inflation-data-led gains. The data from the UK showed that the annual inflation, as measured by the change in the CPI, rose to 2.3% in October from 1.7% in September. Fedspeak awaited.
Gold price moves away from one-week top on rising US bond yields, modest USD strength
Gold price retreats after touching a one-and-half-week top earlier this Wednesday and drops to a fresh daily low, below the $2,630 level heading into the European session. A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Fed, revives the USD demand and undermines demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Why is Bitcoin performing better than Ethereum? ETH lags as BTC smashes new all-time high records
Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in the past two years, setting new highs while the top altcoin struggles to catch up with speed. Several experts exclusively revealed to FXStreet that Ethereum needs global recognition, a stronger narrative and increased on-chain activity for the tide to shift in its favor.
Sticky UK services inflation to keep BoE cutting gradually
Services inflation is set to bounce around 5% into the winter, while headline CPI could get close to 3% in January. That reduces the chance of a rate cut in December, but in the spring, we think there is still a good chance the Bank of England will accelerate its easing cycle.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.