Looking across global FX markets, one could be forgiven for thinking that the market is starting to position for a Donald Trump win. In an entertaining interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Trump went large on using tariffs should he make it back into the White House. As columnists have said, no one should be surprised if this happens. With the election less than three weeks away, it looks like investors will be reluctant to position against such threats even though the election outcome remains very uncertain, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
DXY can dip back to 103.00/103.20
“The most immediate casualty from that interview was the Mexican peso. When it comes to nearshoring, Donald Trump wants US corporates to shorten supply chains not just into Mexico, but into the US itself. He intends to use tariffs to ensure that will be the case. In addition, when it comes to broader tariffs – particularly on the European auto industry – Trump said that tariffs of 10% would not be enough.”
“For the US today, the highlight will be the September US retail sales data and weekly jobless claims. Retail sales are expected to remain reasonable, with the control group at 0.3% MoM. Weekly initial claims are expected to remain high at 258,000, but uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Helene and the port strike will prevent the market from overreacting to this data.”
“Given the large weighting of the euro in the DXY, the DXY could dip back to 103.00/103.20 if we are right with our ECB/euro analysis today, but we suspect the dollar finds decent support on any dips now.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD accelerates its losses and challenges 1.0800 post-ECB
The intense selling pressure continues to punish EUR/USD and sends it to nearly three-month lows in the proximity of the key support at 1.0800 the figure, always in reponse to the sharp advance in the US Dollar and further easing from the ECB.
GBP/USD clings to gains below 1.3000
GBP/USD retreats from recent tops and breaks below the key 1.3000 support on on the back of the intense move higher in the US Dollar following the release of upbeat US data releases and the ECB's rate cut.
Gold nears $2,700 amid US elections’ uncertainty
Prices of Gold advance for the third consecutive session and trade near recent all-time highs around the $2,680 mark per ounce troy despite the incessant rise in the Greenback and the corrective uptick in US yields.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin dominance hits highest level since 2021, BTC and Ethereum steady while XRP gains
Bitcoin dominance climbs to 58.85% on Thursday, the highest level since April 2021. BTC and Ethereum hold steady above $67,000 and $2,600, key price levels for the top two cryptocurrencies. XRP gains on Thursday and trades above $0.5500.
Retail Sales post broad advance in September
Despite worries about the financial health of the consumer and potential weakening in the labor market, U.S. retailers had a solid month in September. Control group sales rose more than twice the expected amount, pointing to stronger Q3 consumer spending.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.