USD Steadies but Lower Yields Weigh – Scotiabank

The USD is tracking a little softer overall but trends across G10 FX are relatively subdued. Broader markets are relatively calm as market participants await Friday’s US jobs data, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD mixed as markets steady ahead of Friday’s jobs data

“Stocks are narrowly mixed and major bond markets are little changed on the session. US 10Y Treasury yields have backed up fractionally. But yields fell sharply yesterday after weak JOLTS data added to concerns that the US labour market is slowing while the Beige Book noted flat or weaker activity across most Federal Reserve districts.”

“We get more data this morning in the form of the ADP data and the latest weekly claims figures. The ADP has proven to be a poor guide to the NFP but a weak report today is likely to increase market anxiety ahead of NFP. ISM Services data are out at 10ET. Japan reported stronger than expected wage gains for July overnight; a 3.6% Y/Y rise in Labour Cash earnings was well ahead of forecasts, bolstering expectations that the BoJ will push ahead with another mild rate increase before year end.”

“Lower US short rates (US2Y yields fell 10bps or so in response to yesterday’s developments) will—if sustained—weigh on the USD in the short run at least and may help pull the DXY broadly lower towards our spread-driven fair value estimate of 100.0. Short-term technical pointers are tilting lower again for the index which may have peaked on Tuesday as the late August/early September rebound in the dollar peters out. DXY support is 100.8 and—stronger—100.5.”