USD/SGD: Retracement underway – OCBC

USD/SGD jumped above 1.35- levels this morning, in reaction to Trump’s threat of tariff. But the move higher was brief, and the pair has eased slightly since then. Pair was last seen at 1.3474, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback

“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart continues to fade while RSI turned lower. Bearish divergence on MACD appears to be playing out. Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback in the near term. Support at 1.3410, 1.3340 (200 DMA) and 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). Resistance at 1.3520 levels. S$NEER continued to ease; last at 0.97% above model-implied mid.”

“SGD has been easing since Oct-2024 on trade-weighted terms even as MAS maintained policy status quo. That said, SGD remains stronger vs. peers in the basket but it is just less strong today (vs. than for most of the year). Historically the positive correlation between the change in S$NEER and MAS core inflation shows that SGD strength can ease when core inflation eases materially. Yesterday release of CPI report saw both headline and core CPI surprised to the downside.”

“The sharp pullback has also led to chatters if MAS would ease soon at the next MPC in Jan-2015. We think there is no hurry to ease amidst many moving parts – tariff threats, geopolitics – which may see price pressures return. MAS is better off monitoring further to avoid any risk of flip-flopping on policy. MAS maintaining policy status quo suggests that SGD can still remain somewhat resilient on trade-weighted terms. At some point in 2Q or 3Q in 2025, MAS may ease policy if core CPI does ease further. SGD strength can ease further when that happens.”