USD/RUB reclaims 130.00 amid challenges for oil, hopes from Ukraine-Russia peace talks

• USD/RUB picks up bids to consolidate the previous day’s losses.
• Ukraine, Venezuela tames previous risk-off mood but headlines from Russia remain hard.
• OPEC Secretary General defies chatters over oil shortage, the West bans energy import from Russia.
• Ukraine-Russia will meet Turkey on Thursday for peace talks, US CPI will also be important.

USD/RUB reverses the previous day’s negative performance, up 1.80% intraday near 130.00 during early Wednesday morning in Europe.

In doing so, the Russia ruble (RUB) pair ignores the latest pullback of the US dollar, amid cautious optimism in the market, amid challenges for oil prices and anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s key events.

WTI crude oil prices print a four-day uptrend around $123.70, up 1.00% intraday by the press time. That said, the black gold rose to the fresh high since 2008 the previous day as the markets raised doubted Ukraine’s efforts to de-escalate geopolitical tensions with Russia.

That said, Kyiv retreated from its previous plan to join NATO, in a nod to Russia, which in turn triggered a sigh of relief after multiple days of escalating geopolitical tension. Also favoring the risk-on mood is the confirmation of the first humanitarian corridor in Ukraine, as well as negatively affecting silver’s safe-haven appeal is Venezuela’s freeing of the American prisoner and the US hint of easing sanctions afterward.

Meanwhile, Russia does not cheer Kyiv’s intention to dump NATO membership goal, maybe because of the fears that Ukraine could join the European Union (EU), which in turn demolishes President Vladimir Putin’s unsaid target of putting Kremlin-controlled leader in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in an interview with Bloomberg TV during CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston that there’s “no physical shortage of oil, as of this morning.” Following that, US State Department Senior Adviser Amos Hochstein said early Wednesday that the US could consider releasing more oil reserves.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop two basis points (bps) to 1.85% whereas the S&P 500 Futures remain firmer on a day at the latest. Also suggesting the upbeat risk appetite is the US Dollar Index’s (DXY) extended pullback from 22-month, as well as firmer equities in Asia.

Looking forward, US inflation data and Thursday’s peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will be crucial for USD/RUB traders.

Technical analysis

Unless breaking below a two-week-old support line, currently around 120.00, USD/RUB remains on the front foot towards refreshing the recent all-time high of 155.00.