|

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates no longer exist in the normal sense – Commerzbank

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates do not exist in the normal sense, economists at Commerzbank report. 

Ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency

“USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates no longer exist in the normal sense, when Russia's central bank, itself, cannot transact in USD or EUR.” 

“The ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency, hence exchange rate numbers which we observe on our screens are a moot point.”

“Granted, CBR still tries to produce a fix which attempts to better guide towards a balance between demand and supply of FX, but this is not really a market-driven exchange rate.”

“Our symbolic forecasts for the ruble are significantly weaker than today’s levels in order to portray that we see the impact of sanctions playing out over a much longer period of time, which is unlikely to be adequately priced in today (we do not think it will resemble a one-off shock pattern, where the maximum impact occurs immediately, followed by recovery over the medium-term).”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750

Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3400 ahead of US data and BoE

GBP/USD reverses its direction and advances toward 1.3400 following a drop to the 1.3350 area earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to gather recovery momentum as markets await Tuesday's Nonfarm Payrolls data, while the Pound Sterling holds steady ahead of the BoE policy announcements later in the week.

Gold stuck around $4,300 as markets turn cautious

Gold loses its bullish momentum and retreats below $4,350 after testing this level earlier on Monday. XAU/USD, however, stays in positive territory as the US Dollar remains on the back foot on growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy outlook next year.

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana (SOL) price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout.