USD recovers but sentiment remains weak – Scotiabank

The impact of this week’s US tariff announcement continues to reverberate around global markets. Stocks continue to weaken, havens – bonds – remain strongly bid. China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US imports and restrictions on rare earth exports, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD recovers from Thursday’s drubbing

"President Trump said that more tariffs (pharma) were coming but suggested concessions could be made in return for 'phenomenal' offers. The global trade war precipitated by the US is weighing heavily on risk sentiment and driving market expectations for slower US growth and lower US interest rates – eroding the 'US exceptionalism' narrative further. Markets are pricing in 110bps of Fed easing by year-end now."

"The USD is likely to retain a defensive undertone for the foreseeable future as investors re-allocate capital to more appealing locales. Note that Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at 11.25ET."

"Technically, the DXY may consolidate in the very short run but this week’s break under noted technical support at 103.75/80 (no major resistance) condemns the index to more losses in the medium term – potentially towards the 99/100 area in the next few weeks."