- Poland is set for a critical parliamentary election, and the NBP's surprise rate cut continues to weaken the PLN.
- Poland's ruling Law & Justice party is facing down headwinds from a Ukrainian grain import ban.
- The Polish government, which campaigned on a platform of being tough on immigration, has been seen selling visas for profit.
The USD/PLN remains pinned to the upside ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) much–anticipated rate call on Wednesday. The Polish Zloty (PLN) remains a beleaguered currency as central bank blunders, European Union (EU) infighting, and government scandals knock around the currently ruling Law & Justice (PiS) party of Poland heading into next month’s critical parliamentary election.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) recently slashed interest rates to the confusion of market participants everywhere, given the Polish inflation rate still remains above 10%. The Governor of the NBP, Adam Glapinski, has been accused of using the central bank’s authority to bolster support for the PiS.
Adam Glapinski is an open supporter of the PiS, and the surprise rate cut was seen as a way to temporarily ease borrowing and lending costs to improve the vote for the PiS in the upcoming election.
Poland recently moved to ban additional imports of Ukrainian grain, citing a need to protect their economy and their domestic farmers. Shipments of Ukrainian grains have increased in recent months as the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports sees market excess sloshing into neighboring countries.
The European Union (EU) recently allowed a ban on Ukrainian grain excess to lapse, and Poland is coming under fire after President Andrzej Duda announced that Warsaw would simply disregard orders from Brussels and introduce their own ban on Ukrainian grain.
Poland, along with several other countries in the Eastern EU, are facing formal charges and lawsuits from Ukraine in both the EU trade courts and the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the grain bans.
President Andrzej Duda and the PiS dealt themselves a political blow this week after allegations of the country selling visas for profit to migrants who then used the credentials to travel to countries they would normally be banned from.
The PiS has undergone damage control, unexpectedly firing the part’s foreign minister for consular affairs, and terminating all contracts for external companies that handle visa processing. The head of the Polish foreign ministry’s legal and compliance department was also terminated.
Everything comes just as Poland is about to face an intense parliamentary election, where the PiS is seen struggling to maintain its vote share.
USD/PLN technical outlook
The Polish Zloty has struggled as of late, and continues to fall backwards against the Greenback (USD).
The USD/PLN pair is tapping into recent highs just north of 4.36, and an extended push could see the pair set to challenge fresh six-month highs above last week’s peak of 4.3841.
The pair’s technical stance remains firmly bullish, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicators all but breaking their seals in overbought territory.
The 200-day Simple Moving Average is currently providing support from 4.2377, and the 34-day Exponential Moving Average is racing to cross over into a bullish confirmation, currently pricing in near 4.2100.
USD/PLN daily chart
USD/PLN technical outlook
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Tuesday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains
USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues
Gold price struggles to capitalize on last week's goodish bounce from a one-month low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears support the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed
US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.