A quick take on global FX markets this Monday morning sees the US Dollar (USD) largely holding onto gains made on the back of the likely Republican clean sweep, while China's fiscal stimulus has so far failed to move the needle on recovery prospects elsewhere in the world. Friday also saw the USD move a little stronger late in Europe after the Financial Times reported that Donald Trump is again lining up Robert Lighthizer to run his trade policy, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
DXY can break above 105.50 near term
“On the subject of Lighthizer, he apparently encouraged Trump to intervene and sell the USD to support US manufacturers during the last Trump administration. No doubt such speculation will occasionally emerge during Trump's next term – especially if the USD strengthens a lot. But Trump's policy set is a positive one for the USD and the former president rejected calls for intervention when last in office."
“We disagree and think this clean election result can boost US consumer and business sentiment at the same time as it weighs on business sentiment elsewhere in the world. Remember one of the big negative impacts of tariffs is its uncertainty weighing on business investment. We see the USD strengthening into year-end.”
“After today's Veterans Day Holiday, the US focus this week will be on whether the Republicans win the House and what should be sticky US core CPI and a firm October retail sales reports, all of which look USD positive. We could see some more DXY consolidation in this 104.50-105.50 range but would expect an upside breakout at some stage.”
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