USD: More settled equities can see the dollar soften a little

Yesterday's slightly higher-than-expected core US CPI for August saw 7bp priced out of the expected 2024 Fed easing cycle. Yet 100bp is still priced in. We doubt those expectations change meaningfully today. In focus will be the August PPI readings and the weekly initial claims data, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

101.90/102.00 resistance should hold in DXY

“This year, PPI readings have taken on greater focus as the market analyses key components such as portfolio management fees, healthcare costs and airfares which read through to the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator. However, now that the Fed has declared ‘the time has come’ to start cutting rates, financial markets will be far less worried by the inflation data prints and have shifted their focus squarely on activity data – particularly jobs data. Here the holiday-shortened week probably means that initial claims data today will remain low near 225,000. In short, not a lot new from the US calendar.”

“The reason we have a down arrow on the dollar today is that the risk environment looks slightly better bid today and we are looking for a slightly stronger euro – which has a large weight in the DXY. Overnight, tech stocks (particularly Nvidia) saw the S&P 500 end up 1% and have sparked some decent rallies across Asia. There is also a small risk that Chinese leaders announce some fiscal support measures – potentially targeted at consumers – at this week's National People's Congress.”

“A budget tweak was made at the same meeting this time last year. Any moves to address weak Chinese demand would be most welcome and break the stagnation fears stalking markets (especially energy markets) this week. If we are right with our EUR/USD call below, c and we can end the day closer to 101.00.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.