USD/JPY will fall by the end of the year – HSBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at HSBC think USD/JPY will fall by year-end 2023 on a range of factors from future BoJ policy announcements to improvements in Japan’s balance of payments and a revival of the JPY’s “safe haven” status.

A revival of Yen’s ‘safe haven’ status could weigh on USD/JPY

“There are many upcoming events that could lead to a change in the BoJ’s policy later. PM Kishida will likely nominate the next BoJ governor sometime in February. Governor Kuroda will chair his last monetary policy meeting on 10 March. The first result tabulation of Shunto (annual wage negotiations) will likely be announced around mid-March. The new governor will chair his first monetary policy meeting on 28 April.”

“Aside from the BoJ, there are other plausible developments that could drive USD/JPY lower in 2023: resident investors FX-hedging their foreign investments; an improvement in Japan’s core balance of payments due to JPY undervaluation and tourism resumption; and a revival of the JPY’s counter-cyclical nature and ‘safe haven’ status during risk-off episodes (as US yields fall).”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD recedes to daily lows near 1.1850

EUR/USD keeps its bearish momentum well in place, slipping back to the area of 1.1850 to hit daily lows on Monday. The pair’s continuation of the leg lower comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar in a context of scarce volatility and thin trade conditions due to the inactivity in the US markets.

GBP/USD resumes the downtrend, back to the low-1.3600s

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Friday’s decent advance, refocusing on the downside and retreating to the 1.3630 region at the beginning of the week. In the meantime, the British Pound is expected to remain under the microscope ahead of the release of the key UK labour market report on Tuesday.

Gold looks inconclusive around $5,000

Gold partially fades Friday’s strong recovery, orbiting around the key $5,000 region per troy ounce in a context of humble gains in the Greenback on Monday. Additing to the vacillating mood, trade conditions remain thin amid the observance of the Presidents Day holiday in the US.

Bitcoin consolidates as on-chain data show mixed signals

Bitcoin price has consolidated between $65,700 and $72,000 over the past nine days, with no clear directional bias. US-listed spot ETFs recorded a $359.91 million weekly outflow, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

XRP steadies in narrow range as fund inflows, futures interest rise

Ripple is trading in a narrow range between $1.45 (immediate support) and $1.50 (resistance) at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token extended its recovery last week, peaking at $1.67 on Sunday from the weekly open at $1.43.