USD/JPY: Trades with a downside bias – DBS

USD/JPY has a downside bias if it consolidates in a 145-150 range, DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

Ishiba has affirms the Bank of Japan’s independence

“Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has affirmed the Bank of Japan’s independence, looking to correct his earlier remark in early October about opposing future interest rate hikes. Heading into the snap election on October 27, the Ishiba government probably realized the critical role played by the BOJ’s hikes in addressing the JPY’s weakness, which is responsible for the higher cost of living besetting voters.

"The next BOJ meeting is scheduled on October 31. During its next policy meeting on October 30-31, the BOJ should reaffirm its framework to hike rates and reduce JGB purchases if the economy performs according to its projections."

"On October 18, consensus sees National CPI inflation excluding fresh food falling to 2.3% YoY in September from 2.8% in August, below the BOJ’s median forecast of 2.5% for Fiscal 2024 but above the 2.1% projection for Fiscal 2025. The 2Y and 10Y bond differentials between USTs and JGBs suggest that USD/JPY should be lower around 138-141."