USD/JPY to push towards 135 in early 2024 – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is getting closer to the end game, in the view of economists at TD Securities who expect USD/JPY to push to 135 in early 2024.

BoJ getting closer to the hiking trigger

The BoJ is getting closer to pulling the trigger to end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). We believe the BoJ 2% inflation goal is clearly in sight, factoring in the latest inflation data and risks (as well as other events) on the horizon. We expect the BoJ to end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy at the Dec'23 meeting and exit NIRP in Jan'24 with a 10 bps hike in the policy balance rate.

Our accelerated timeline for BoJ normalization reinforces our out-of-consensus USD/JPY forecast, which sees a push towards 135 in early 2024.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD tests 1.1800 barrier above 50-day EMA

EUR/USD gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 47 (neutral) reflects easing momentum. The RSI below 50 keeps momentum balanced and could limit follow-through.

GBP/USD struggles near four-week low vs. USD, below 1.3500 amid BoE rate cut bets

The GBP/USD pair is seen consolidating its weekly losses registered over the past three days and oscillating in a narrow range near a four-week trough, touched during the Asians session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just below the 1.3500 psychological mark and seem vulnerable to slide further.

Gold consolidates below $5,000 amid geopolitical risk, hawkish FOMC Minutes

Gold extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Thursday and remains below the $5,000 psychological mark as traders seem hesitant amid mixed cues. The US Dollar preserves its strong gains to over a one-week high in the wake of somewhat hawkish Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s January monetary policy meeting.

Injective token surges over 13% following the approval of the mainnet upgrade proposal

Injective price rallies over 13% on Thursday after the network confirmed the approval of its IIP-619 proposal. The green light for the mainnet upgrade has boosted traders’ sentiment, as the upgrade aims to scale Injective’s real-time Ethereum Virtual Machine architecture and enhance its capabilities to support next-generation payments. The technical outlook suggests further gains if INJ breaks above key resistance.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.