- USD/JPY struggles to defend the bounce off 100-SMA around one-week low.
- Convergence of one-week-old resistance line and ascending trend line from early April appears crucial resistance.
- Sellers need to defy five-week-old rising channel to retake control.
- Sluggish oscillators, failure to rebound keeps Yen pair sellers hopeful.
USD/JPY treads water around 133.70 as it fades late Wednesday’s corrective bounce from a fortnight’s low during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair fades rebound from the 100-SMA while justifying the early-week break of an upward-sloping trend line from April 05, now immediate resistance.
Apart from the trend line break, downbeat MACD signals and steady RSI also keeps Yen pair sellers hopeful.
However, a clear downside break of the 100-SMA level of 133.40 becomes necessary to convince sellers. Even so, the bottom line of the five-week-old ascending trend channel, close to 132.40 as we write, challenges the USD/JPY bears.
In a case where the Yen pair remains bearish past 132.40, the odds of witnessing a gradual downturn towards the monthly bottom of 130.63 and then to the late March swing low of near 129.65 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the 134.45-50 resistance confluence to convince short-term buyers of the USD/JPY pair. A downward-sloping trend line from April 19 joins the three-week-long previous support line to highlight the stated hurdle.
Should the pair buyers keep the reins past 134.50, the previously mentioned channel’s top line, close to 135.55 at the latest, can act as the last defense of the USD/JPY bears.
USD/JPY: Four-hour chart
Trend: Further downside expected
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