USD/JPY Price Analysis: Holds steady above 148.00, bulls have the hand near YTD peak

USD/JPY eases from the YTD peak touched earlier this Thursday, though lacks follow-through.
Comments by Japan’s Matsuno fuel intervention fears and prompt some selling around the pair.
The Fed's hawkish outlook continues to underpin the USD and helps limit losses for the major.
The technical setup remains tilted in favour of bulls and supports prospects for a further move up.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair pulls back after hitting a fresh YTD peak, around the 148.45 region during the Asian session this Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through and manages to hold above the daily trough. Spot prices currently trade around the 148.25 area, down less than 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.

Against the backdrop of the recent breakout through the 146.50-146.60 strong horizontal barrier, the overnight sustained strength and a daily close above the 148.00 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The positive outlook for the USD/JPY pair is reinforced by the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook.

That said, comments by Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, saying that he won't rule out any options for response to FX moves, raises the risk of an intervention by authorities to prop up the domestic currency. Apart from this, speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could move away from the negative interest rates policy benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical indicators on the daily chart, meanwhile, are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. Hence, any meaningful corrective decline below the 148.00 round figure might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 147.70-147.65 area

The latter is closely followed by the weekly trough, around mid-147.00s, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair back towards the 147.00 round figure. Spot prices could then slide to the 146.50 horizontal support before eventually dropping to last week's swing low or sub-146.00 levels.

On the flip side, bulls might now wait for some follow-through strength beyond the 148.45 region, or the daily peak, before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the USD/JPY pair towards the next relevant hurdle near the 148.80-148.85 region en route to the 149.00 round figure. The momentum could get extended further to the 149.70 area, above which spot prices could aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark for the first time since October 2022.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	148.27
Today Daily Change	-0.08
Today Daily Change %	-0.05
Today daily open	148.35

Trends
Daily SMA20	147
Daily SMA50	144.35
Daily SMA100	142.17
Daily SMA200	137.53

Levels
Previous Daily High	148.36
Previous Daily Low	147.48
Previous Weekly High	147.95
Previous Weekly Low	145.9
Previous Monthly High	147.38
Previous Monthly Low	141.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	148.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	147.81
Daily Pivot Point S1	147.76
Daily Pivot Point S2	147.17
Daily Pivot Point S3	146.87
Daily Pivot Point R1	148.65
Daily Pivot Point R2	148.95
Daily Pivot Point R3	149.53

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD looks sidelined below 1.1600

EUR/USD remains on the back foot in the latter part of the NA session on Thursday, now attempting a consolidative theme in the sub-1.1600 region. A more cautious market mood, driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, together with broad-based strength in the US Dollar, is favouring the continuation of the leg lower in spot.

GBP/USD stays offered near 1.3340

GBP/USD fades Wednesday’s uptick and trades with decent losses in the 1.3340 zone in the latter part of Thursday’s session. Cable’s weakness, alongside the rest of the risk complex, follows the strong performance of the Greenback amid intense geopolitical jitters.

Gold: further weakness could challenge $5,000

Gold comes under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce. Persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD) is preventing the yellow metal from building a meaningful recovery, even as markets remain risk-averse amid the deepening conflict in the Middle East.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP hold weekly gains despite US-Iran war

The cryptocurrency market is gaining strength on Thursday, building on Wednesday's upswing, which saw Bitcoin reach a weekly high above $74,000. Ethereum and Ripple are moderating their recent gains amid uncertainty stemming from the escalating war in the Middle East.

Two PMIs, two Chinas

China’s economic data are often treated with a degree of caution by global investors. The challenge is not necessarily that the numbers are incorrect, but that they can describe very different parts of a vast and complex economy. Nowhere is that more evident than in China’s PMIs.

Ripple tests recovery strength amid steady ETF inflows, growing retail interest

Ripple (XRP) continues to demonstrate notable resilience as the cryptocurrency market navigates the persistent war in the Middle East after the United States (US) and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday.