- USD/JPY renews intraday high near the highest levels in two weeks.
- Yields grind higher as OPEC+ renew inflation woes; US Dollar cheers pre-NFP rebound.
- Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index eased in Q1, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI improved in March.
- US PMIs, ADP data can entertain traders ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
USD/JPY takes the bids to refresh intraday high near 133.50 as bulls keep the reins after witnessing the first weekly gain in five.
The Yen pair’s latest gains could be linked to the firmer US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar, as markets await the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), up for publishing on Friday. Adding strength to the USD/JPY pair’s run-up could be the latest challenges to the sentiment, mainly emanating from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+. However, the mixed data at home and anxiety ahead of top-tier US statistics challenge the pair buyers of late.
Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, a closely observed output guide by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), eased to 1.0 from 7.0 previous readings and 3.0 expected. On the other hand, Japan’s Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 49.2 from 48.6 previous. However, the below-50 figure suggests a contraction in private manufacturing activities.
On the other hand, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, declined to 4.6% YoY in February from 4.7% expected and prior. On a monthly basis, Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% while easing below the market expectation of 0.4% and a downwardly revised 0.5% previous reading.
It’s worth observing that the receding hawkish calls surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also favor USD/JPY buyers. However, the recent easing calls of the Fed’s hawkish moves, as well as easing fears of the banking crisis, seem to gain little attention.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 1.0% intraday to 28,041 by the press time but the S&P 500 Futures snapped a three-day uptrend near the highest levels since mid-February.
On the other hand, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields print mild gains near 3.52% and 4.11% while paring the latest losses. It should be noted that the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped for the past three weeks and the past three consecutive days.
Looking ahead, USD/JPY is likely to extend the latest rebound amid a light calendar and firmer yields. However, receding hawkish bets on the Fed may weigh on the US Dollar prices should the incoming PMIs and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) disappoint the greenback buyers.
Technical analysis
An upside break of 50-DMA, close to 133.00 at the latest, joins bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI (14), not overbought to direct USD/JPY buyers towards the 100-DMA hurdle of around 133.85.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.