- USD/JPY has seen some whipsaw patterns in recent days.
- BoJ remains dovish on rates, US PMIs beat expectations.
- USD/JPY ran into the 200-hour SMA for the first time since the start of 2024.
USD/JPY heads into the Thursday market session trading near 147.50 after shedding the 148.00 handle on Wednesday. The pair has churned in a rough bearish pattern since peaking near 148.50 last week.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remained firmly planted in their dovish monetary policy stance on Tuesday, dedicated to keeping interest rates in negative territory until the Japanese central bank sees enough evidence that inflation in Japan’s domestic economy won’t drop too far below 2% in the future.
The BoJ is also waiting to see how wages shift in the spring, with Japan traditionally seeing salary negotiations take place en masse in the first half of the year.
US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for January broadly beat expectations on Wednesday, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printing at an 11-month high of 50.3 versus the forecast flat print at 47.9. The Services PMI component also gained ground, coming in at 52.9 and vaulting over the forecast decline to 51.0 from the previous month’s 51.4.
Markets are now pivoting to face Thursday’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 4Q update, which is forecast to pullback to 2% from the third quarter’s 4.9 growth print.
The trading week will also close out with another round of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index figures, with the MoM PCE forecast to tick upwards to 0.2% from 0.1%, and the annualized PCE inflation print is expected to slide from 3.2% to 3.0%. As the Fed’s favored method of tracking inflation, the PCE print for December will be a critical data point for investors hoping for the Fed to get pushed into an accelerated pace of rate cuts.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY ran aground on the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Wednesday, dipping into the 146.80 region before rebounding back above the 147.00 handle to settle the day close to 147.50.
Medium-term momentum appears to be tilting into the bearish side as daily candlesticks test new lows after 2024’s 6% bottom-to-top climb from December’s swing low into 140.25. The pair sees the 50-day and 200-day SMAs set to collide in a consolidation pattern, and the USD/JPY will see a long-term technical barrier at the 145.00 major handle.
USD/JPY Hourly Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0450 amid quiet markets
EUR/USD defends gains below 1.0450 in European trading on Monday. Thin trading heading into the Xmas holiday and a modest US Dollar rebound leaves the pair in a familair range. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde's comments fail to impress the Euro.
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2600 after UK Q3 GDP revision
GBP/USD trades on the defensive below 1.2600 in the European session on Monday. The pair holds lower ground following the downward revision to the third-quarter UK GDP data, which weighs negatively on the Pound Sterling amid a broad US Dollar uptick.
Gold price sticks to modest gains; upside seems limited amid USD dip-buying
Gold price attracts some follow-through buying at the start of a new week and looks to build on its recovery from a one-month low touched last Thursday. Geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, along with trade war fears, turn out to be key factors benefiting the safe-haven precious metal.
Let’s focus on the good for a few more days
Last week was chaotic. The Fed’s hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted - and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump took office gave a negative jolt to the US stock markets.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.