- USD/JPY remains on the defensive near 153.70 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- A higher chance of a BoJ rate hike might support the JPY in the near term.
- Mixed US S&P PMI for July and the Fed’s dovish comments are likely to weigh on the Greenback.
The USD/JPY pair remains under some selling pressure around 153.70, the lowest in three months, on Thursday during the early Asian session. The rising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will cut interest rates next week provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the time being. The advanced US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter will be in the spotlight on Thursday.
The BoJ is likely to debate whether to hike interest rates again next week and unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in the coming years. “This may be due to the fact that ahead of the BoJ's interest rate decision next week, more and more analysts see the risk that an interest rate hike could come now rather than in September. It will also be interesting to see what the BoJ says about its bond purchases and whether it could gradually reduce them.” said Commerzbank FX strategist Antje Praefcke. Additionally, the potential foreign exchange (FX) interventions from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the pair.
Multiple headwinds from the US, including a mixed US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), are likely to exert some selling pressure on the USD. The US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 55.0 in July from 54.8 in June. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 from 51.6 in the same period, below the market consensus of 51.7. The Services PMI rose to 56.0 from 55.3, stronger than the expectation of 54.4.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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