In light of the recent price action, the prospects for further decline in USD/JPY appear diminished, commented FX Strategists at UOB Group.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 109.75) that ‘conditions remain oversold and this coupled with the rapid bounce indicates that USD is unlikely to weaken further’ and we expected USD to ‘consolidate and trade between 109.15 and 109.65’. While our view that USD is unlikely weaken further is correct, we did not anticipate the rapid rise during NY session to 109.82. The advance has room to extend but a clear break of the major resistance at 110.05 is unlikely (next resistance is at 110.25). Support is at 109.60 followed by 109.45.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “On Wednesday (15 Sep, spot at 109.60), we highlighted that USD ‘has to close below 109.30 before a sustained decline can be expected’. After USD dropped to 109.09 (but did not close below 109.30), we highlighted yesterday (16 Sep, spot at 109.40) that ‘we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 109.30 before adopting a more negative stance in USD’. USD subsequently rebounded to a high of 109.82 during NY session. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 109.90 is not breached, downward momentum has more or less fizzled out. In other words, the downside risk has dissipated. USD has likely ‘lapsed’ back into a consolidation phase and could trade between 109.30 and 110.25 for now.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.0400 as mood sours
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades near 1.0400 following the earlier recovery attempt. The holiday mood kicked in, keeping action limited across the FX board, while a cautious risk mood helped the US Dollar hold its ground and forced the pair to stretch lower.
GBP/USD approaches 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD loses its traction and trades near 1.2500 in the second half of the day on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from safe-haven flows and weighs on the pair as trading conditions remain thin heading into the Christmas holiday.
Gold hovers around $2,610 in quiet pre-holiday trading
Gold struggles to build on Friday's gains and trades modestly lower on the day near $2,620. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges slightly higher above 4.5%, making it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.
Bitcoin fails to recover as Metaplanet buys the dip
Bitcoin hovers around $95,000 on Monday after losing the progress made during Friday’s relief rally. The largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high at $108,353 on Tuesday but this was followed by a steep correction after the US Fed signaled fewer interest-rate cuts than previously anticipated for 2025.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.