- USD/JPY tumbles as the US Dollar falls back after a stellar opening.
- US Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Canada and Mexico for providing passage to China to supply illicit drugs in the US economy.
- Investors await the US PCE inflation and the Tokyo CPI data for October.
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 153.00 in Tuesday’s North American session. The asset plummets as the US Dollar (USD) gives up its entire intraday gains and turns negative after a strong opening. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to near 106.50 after a strong opening around 107.50.
The Greenback had a stellar opening after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for providing China a freeway to supply illicit drugs to the United States (US), said in a tweet on Truth.Social. For that, Trump also announced to levy additional 10% tariffs over China above 60%, which he already mentioned in the election campaign.
However, the US Dollar falls back as investors remain confident that Scott Bessent, Trump’s nomination for Treasury Secretary, will maintain political steadiness despite fulfilling the Trump’s economic agenda. Bessent said in an interview with Financial Times (FT) over the weekend that Trump’s policies will not boost inflationary pressures.
Going forward, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in December, which will be published on Wednesday. Economists expect the inflation data to have accelerated from September readings on an annual basis. Month-on-month headline and core PCE inflation data are estimated to have grown steadily.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly even though traders dial back expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike interest rates in December. Market participants expect that political uncertainty in Japan limits BoJ’s potential for raining its key borrowing rates further. This week, investors will focus on the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be published on Thursday.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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