- BoJ interest rate decision due during Tuesday market session.
- BoJ press conference and Q4 outlook report to draw trader focus.
- Japan Tokyo inflation due later this week, on Friday.
The USD/JPY cycled around the 148.00 handle on Monday as traders gear up for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest rate statement on Tuesday, coming ahead of another round of Japanese inflation figures slated for Friday with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Bank of Japan Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, BoJ to maintain the status quo and remain dovish
The Bank of Japan is firmly entrenched in a hyper-easy policy stance, and markets don’t expect much movement on interest rates from the Japanese central bank anytime soon as BoJ policymakers continue to fret about Japanese inflation which is expected to possibly slump below their 2% target at some point in the future.
The BoJ’s own inflation outlook forecasts Japanese inflation declining below 2% sometime in 2025, and it will take a significant shift in Japanese economic figures to pushy the BoJ out of its current negative rate regime.
Despite this, investors will be watching the BoJ’s press conference on Tuesday closely; BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinged the end of negative rates on wage increases in Japan during 2024’s first quarter.
MUFG: JPY could weaken further barring a stronger signal that rates could be raised in spring
Elsewhere on the data docket for this week, US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures are due Wednesday and are expected to hold steady at 47.9 for the manufacturing component in January, while the services sector PMI is forecast to fall back slightly from 51.4 to 51.0 in the same period.
The US will also see fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP)< which is expected to decrease from 4.9% to 2.0% on an annualized basis, while Friday brings a fresh round of Tokyo CPI inflation, with YoY Tokyo Core CPI expected to slip from 2.1% to 1.9% in January.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY finds itself mired on the 50-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 148.00 handle as near-term momentum drains out of the pair. Intraday technical support sits at the 200-hour SMA near 146.75, and short-term traders will note a hard line drawn under the 147.75 price level after last week’s climb into the 148.50 neighborhood.
Daily candlesticks have the USD/JPY temporarily frozen as candles spin in place at the top end of a 6% climb from December’s swing low into 140.25.
The 200-day SMA is providing rising support near 144.00, and near-term gains in the pair leave the USD/JPY on the high side of a declining 50-day SMA near 146.00.
USD/JPY Hourly Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.