- USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase near its highest level since August 19.
- Bulls seem reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the release of the US NFP report.
- BoJ rate hike uncertainty and reduced bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut lend support.
The USD/JPY pair is seen oscillating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidating its weekly gains to the highest level since August 19 touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade below the 147.00 mark, unchanged for the day, as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details.
The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 140K jobs in September, slightly lower than the 142K in the previous month, and the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%. Apart from this, Average Hourly Earnings will be looked upon for cues about the size of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut at its next policy meeting in November. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the demand for the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
Heading into the key data risk, investors have been scaling back their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed amid signs of a still resilient US labor market. This pushed the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to a one-month top on Thursday. Furthermore, reduced bets for more BoJ rate hikes in 2024, along with the political uncertainty ahead of a snap election in Japan on October 27, could undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the second week in the previous three and barring any big negative surprises from the US jobs data, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for further gains. That said, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the risk of a full-blown war in the region could benefit the safe-haven JPY. This might turn out to be the only factor holding back bullish traders from placing aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 04, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 140K
Previous: 142K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD trades sideways around 0.6850, focus shifts to US NFP
AUD/USD is trading sideways at around 0.6850 in Friday's Asian trading, consolidating the latest uptick. The pair finds support from a minor US Dollar pullback but persisting Middle East tensions and pre-US NFP data nervousness keep the higher-yielding Aussie pair's rebound in check.
USD/JPY holds lower ground near 146.50, awaits US NFP report
USD/JPY has come under pressure in the Asian session on Friday, holding lower ground near 146.50. Bulls seem reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the release of the US NFP report. Japanese officials' comments support the Yen amid a cautious risk tone.
Gold price remains range bound, looks to US NFP report for fresh directional impetus
Gold price remains confined in a narrow trading range amid mixed fundamental cues. Geopolitical risks lend support to the metal, though the recent USD strength caps gains. Traders also seem reluctant and look to the US NFP report before placing directional bets.
Nonfarm Payrolls Cheat Sheet: Five scenarios for Gold, Indices and Forex Premium
Jobs, jobs, jobs – that is the focus for the Federal Reserve and for almost all tradable assets. The release is critical for the next Fed decision, with markets split about whether the bank will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.