US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 145.20/147.50 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, too early to expect weakness to stabilise, but USD must break and hold below 145.00 before further decline is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD/JPY to continue declining below 145.00
24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp decline in USD two days ago and early yesterday, we indicated that 'although the outsized decline has resulted in a sharp and swift rise in downward momentum, conditions are deeply oversold.' However, we pointed out 'as long as USD remains below 149.40, it could continue to weaken.' We also pointed out 'given the oversold conditions, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 146.50 today.' The subsequent steep selloff that reached a low of 145.18 was surprising. The decline remains deeply oversold and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a 145.20/147.50 range."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (03 Apr, spot at 148.00), we highlighted that 'the increase in momentum indicates further USD weakness.' We added, 'the level to watch is 146.50.' We did not expect USD to reach 146.50 within hours as it plunged and closed lower by a whopping 2.13% (146.06), its largest one-day drop since Dec 2023. Despite being deeply oversold, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise. On the other hand, the 145.00 level is a significant support and USD must break and hold below this level before further decline is likely. On the upside,
should USD break above 149.00 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 150.10 yesterday), it would indicate that the weakness has stabilised. In the near-term, 147.50 is already a notable resistance level."
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