Political drama in Europe and weak trends in many emerging market currencies are keeping the dollar bid. We doubt that this environment will change anytime soon, although we would look out for today's US JOLTS job opening data (16CET) as the main threat to the dollar today, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner note.
DXY to stay bid in a 106-107 range today
“Fortunately, we had another great speech from the Fed's Christopher Waller last night indicating his inclination to vote for a rate cut on 18 December. The market currently prices 18bp of a 25bp Fed rate cut and so there is room for short-dated US rates and the dollar to fall were the JOLTS data today to surprise on the downside and signal further slack in the US labour market.”
“However, on the international stage, the currencies of many US trading partners are suffering from some home-grown problems. In Europe, it looks like the French government may fall by the end of the week. And many of the BRICS currencies are under pressure. This has less to do with the weekend threats from Donald Trump to tariff any country threatening to support a pre-eminent reserve currency other than the US dollar.”
“Expect DXY to stay bid in a 106-107 range today, unless the JOLTS data surprises sharply to the downside.”
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