- The Indian Rupee gains momentum in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- The routine interventions by the RBI support the INR; portfolio outflows and a stronger USD might cap its upside.
- Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is set to speak later on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the rally on Tuesday, bolstered by the intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to prevent the local currency from significant depreciation. Furthermore, the recovery in crude oil prices provides some support to the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.
Nonetheless, the sustained outflow of foreign funds and the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might exert some selling pressure on the Indian Rupee. A decline in most Asian currencies also weighs on the local currency for the time being. In the absence of top-tier US economic data releases on Tuesday, the attention will be on risk sentiment and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jeffrey Schmid speech.
Indian Rupee recovers as RBI Intervention caps decline
- The Indian equity benchmark indices, the Sensex, declined 0.31% to 77,339.01 points on Monday, closing 10.05% below its record high level hit on September 27. The Nifty fell 0.34%, its longest falling streak in more than 20 months.
- India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $675.65 billion for the sixth week in a row, from a record high of $704 billion in late September.
- DBS Bank estimated India's economic growth will moderate to 6.0% in 2025 and 2026, down from 8.2% in 2024.
- Moody's Ratings projected the Indian economy to grow by 7.2% in 2024, driven by a gradual recovery in household spending and easing inflation pressures.
- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index climbed to 46.0 in November, the highest since April, from 43.0 in October, beating the estimate of 44.0.
USD/INR’s outlook remains positive in the longer term
The Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. The bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair prevails as the pair remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above its midline near 67.00, suggesting that the support is likely to hold rather than break.
The first upside barrier to watch is the all-time high of 84.45. A decisive break above this level could clear the way for a move to the 85.00 psychological level.
On the flip side, the resistance-turned-support level at 84.35 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. A move below the mentioned level could expose 84.00, the round mark. Extended losses could see a drop to 83.89, the 100-day EMA.
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
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