USD/INR: Rupee seen between 69-72 by Q1 2019 if Oil remains weak - UBS

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

In the latest client note, analysts at the Swiss investment banking company, UBS Group AG, noted that the Indian Rupee to maintain its recovery mode early next year should the current trend of lower oil prices last.

At the press time, USD/INR is seen firmer so far this Tuesday, flirting with the 71 handle. Despite the renewed weakness in the Rupee, it has recovered almost 4% from the record lows reached at 74.49 in early October.

Key Quotes (via ET Bureau):

“The fair value of the rupee is in the range of 67-70, based on the productivity-adjusted Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER).

If the current trend of lower oil lasts through March 2019, the currency could trade between 69 and 72 to a dollar.

A sustainable rupee appreciation is still some time away, given the general elections, MSCI EM rebalancing in the second or third quarter of 2019, and New Delhi’s basic balance deficit despite the plunge in global oil prices.

A marginal depreciation bias for the rupee could continue into FY20, although the currency is unlikely to reprise this calendar year’s weak performance.”

USD/INR Technical Levels:

USD/INR

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 70.9325
    Today Daily change: 9.8e+2 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.138%
    Today Daily Open: 70.835
Trends:
    Previous Daily SMA20: 72.2349
    Previous Daily SMA50: 72.8563
    Previous Daily SMA100: 71.3499
    Previous Daily SMA200: 68.9358
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 70.92
    Previous Daily Low: 70.3075
    Previous Weekly High: 72.102
    Previous Weekly Low: 70.495
    Previous Monthly High: 74.504
    Previous Monthly Low: 72.525
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 70.686
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 70.5415
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 70.455
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 70.075
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 69.8425
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 71.0675
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 71.3
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 71.68

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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