USD/INR rises as Trump poises to become next US president, Indian Rupee hits record low

The Indian Rupee remains under pressure near an all-time low in Wednesday’s early European session.
Stronger USD and persistent foreign fund outflows continue to undermine the INR.
Investors will shift their attention to the Fed rate decision on Thursday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts some sellers to near an all-time low on Wednesday, pressured by a rise in the US Dollar (USD) and weakness in Asian peers after the polls showed Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. Furthermore, significant outflows from domestic stocks continue to weigh on the local currency.

However, the downside risk for the INR might be limited by the routine actions taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sell the USD to prevent significant depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Investors will closely monitor the final outcome of the US election ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, Trump trades continue to rally as his odds improve. Analysts expect that the victory of Donald Trump could push the USD higher.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid US election updates

"Dollar is doing well, U.S. yields are on the rise and U.S. equity futures are up. Traders are getting into Trump trades based on what the U.S. election results are so far," noted a Singapore-based hedge fund portfolio manager.
According to the IMF, India is now estimated to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-biggest economy by FY2025. The IMF forecasts that India's GDP will rise to $4,340 billion next fiscal year.
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September and beating the estimation of 53.8.
The US S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.0 in October, down from the previous reading and the consensus of 55.3.
Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% odds of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains bullish in the longer term

The Indian Rupee weakens on the day. Technically, the strong bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline near 67.30, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

The key upside barrier for USD/INR emerges near the upper boundary of the ascending trend channel at84.25. Extended gains above the mentioned level could see a rally to 84.50, en route to the 85.00 psychological level.

In the bearish event, any follow-through selling below the lower limit of the trend channel near 84.05 could expose 83.79, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is located at 83.46, the low of September 24.

Indian economy FAQs

How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee?

The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.

What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee?

India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.

How does inflation in India impact the Rupee?

Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.

How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee?

India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

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