- USD/INR gains traction around 82.28, gaining 0.02% for the day.
- The renewed tensions between the US-China exert some pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR).
- Softer US inflation data might convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a less hawkish stance.
- Moving on, market participants will closely watch the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFT report) due on Friday.
The USD/INR pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair currently trades within a large consolidation phase since October 2022 and holds above 82.20. The uptick in USD/INR is bolstered by the strength of the Greenback. The US dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of USD against a basket of six influential currencies, rebounds above the 102.00 area following last week's gains against its rivals.
The escalating tensions between the US and China over access to technology exert some pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR) and benefit the safe-haven US Dollar. On Monday, China announced export restrictions on some drones and drone-related equipment to the US, citing "national security and interests”. The restriction will go into effect on September 1, according to the commerce ministry.
On the other hand, evidence of alleviating underlying price pressures in the United States might convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a less hawkish stance. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index decreased from 3.8% in May to 3% in June, below the market's expectation of 3.1%. While the Core PCE Price Index came in at 4.1% annually, down from 4.6% in May and below market expectations of 4.2%, The possibility of the Fed ending its rate-hiking cycle might cap the US Dollar ’s upside and act as a headwind for USD/INR.
Moving on, market participants will closely watch the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFT) report due on Friday. The US economy is expected to have created 180,000 jobs. This event could significantly impact the US Dollar's dynamic and give the USD/INR pair a clear direction. Additionally, the JOLTS Job Openings report, ADP Private Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Unit Labour Cost will be released later this week.
USD/INR Technical Outlook:
From the technical perspective, two converging trend lines constitute the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50, supporting the buyers for now.
Resistance levels: 82.75, 83.00, and 83.20
Support levels: 81.90, 81.70, and 81.10
USD/INR daily chart
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