USD/INR Price Analysis: Seems vulnerable near 82.00, ascending trend-line breakdown in play

USD/INR edges lower on Thursday and stalls a two-day recovery trend from a multi-month low.
The technical setup seems tilted in favour of bears and supports prospects for a further downfall.
A sustained move back above the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the near-term negative bias.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on its recovery gains registered over the past two days, from the 81.65 region, or the lowest level since early May and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips from the daily low and currently trade around the 82.00 mark, down less than 0.10% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown through ascending trend-line support extending from November 2022, which coincided with the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), favours bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and add credence to the outlook. This, along with the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/INR pair is to the downside.

Hence, a slide back towards testing a multi-month low, around the 81.65 area touched on Tuesday, looks like a distinct possibility. The USD/INR could slide further towards the next relevant support near the 81.50 zone. Spot prices could eventually drop to test sub-81.00 levels or the YTD low set in January.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 82.20 region, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained move beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/INR pair towards the 82.70-82.80 supply zone. Some follow-through buying might then allow bulls to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 round-figure mark, which has been acting as a strong barrier since the beginning of this year.

Hence, a convincing breakthrough will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the USD/INR pair's well-established uptrend witnessed since August 2022. Spot prices might then surpass the all-time peak, around the 83.40-83.45 region touched in October 2022, and aim to reclaim the 84.00 mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Key levels to watch

USD/INR

Overview
Today last price	81.9935
Today Daily Change	-0.0640
Today Daily Change %	-0.08
Today daily open	82.0575

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.1702
Daily SMA50	82.2842
Daily SMA100	82.1927
Daily SMA200	82.1654

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.122
Previous Daily Low	81.8554
Previous Weekly High	82.2014
Previous Weekly Low	81.9116
Previous Monthly High	82.737
Previous Monthly Low	81.8477
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	82.0202
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	81.9573
Daily Pivot Point S1	81.9013
Daily Pivot Point S2	81.7451
Daily Pivot Point S3	81.6347
Daily Pivot Point R1	82.1679
Daily Pivot Point R2	82.2783
Daily Pivot Point R3	82.4345

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD: Breakdown below trading range support near 1.1770 comes into play

The EUR/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week as the US-Iran war-led global flight to safety boosts the US Dollar. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and manage to hold above mid-1.1700s during the Asian session.

GBP/USD declines below 1.3450 on Middle East tensions, UK political uncertainty

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3420 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar edges higher against the Cable amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend.

Gold jumps over 2% toward $5,400 after US, Israel attack Iran

Gold is on fire at the start of the week, a widely expected move, as investors seek harbor in the traditional store of value, following the continued US and Israel attacks on Iran. The bright metal opened with a bullish gap of about $17 and rallied toward the $5,400 level as Asian traders hit their desks and reacted negatively to the weekend news of the Middle East conflict, rushing for cover in Gold.

Iran escalation: Quick thoughts on markets

Markets are likely to open the week with risk-off, with declines led by airlines, cyclicals and trade-exposed names, while energy, defense and “strategic” sectors may be relatively steadier.

Crisis in the Middle East: The market reaction

A primer on how markets will open on Monday, and why geopolitical risk may not be easily absorbed by financial markets this time around. Geopolitics and events between Iran, the US and the wider Middle East will dominate financial markets on Monday. The situation has continued to escalate as we move through Sunday.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.