- The Indian Rupee edges higher in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Trade tariff worries, sustained foreign outflows, and concerns on an Indian economic slowdown weigh on the INR.
- Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers on Tuesday, marking its biggest jump since November 2022, after falling to a fresh record low in the previous session. The strong intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Dollar (USD) selling by exporters and profit-booking by speculators provide some support to the INR. The frequent interventions have weighed on India's Foreign exchange reserves, which are hovering near an 11-month low.
Nonetheless, the risk of fresh US trade tariffs could spur losses in most regional currencies, including the INR. Investors are concerned about the Indian economy as data signal that Asia’s third-largest economy is slowing. The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to expand by 6.4% in the year through March, the weakest pace since the pandemic. Additionally, the sustained portfolio outflows contribute to the local currency’s downside. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony will be the highlight later on Tuesday.
Indian Rupee rebounds despite tariff threats
- The Indian Rupee has declined continuously since Trump's victory in the US elections last November, falling by around 4.5% since then.
- "We believe the risks to INR over the coming months are skewed towards relative weakness. If the broad USD were to weaken, we believe the downside in USD/INR would be mitigated by active RBI FX purchases," Nomura said in a note.
- India has high tariffs that lock out imports, Trump's top economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday, adding that India's Prime Minister had a lot to discuss with Trump when the two leaders meet soon.
- India is considering tariff cuts in at least a dozen sectors, from electronics to medical equipment and chemicals, in order to promote US exports and align with India's domestic manufacturing ambitions.
- India also plans to propose increasing energy product imports from the US, estimated at over $11 billion in the first eleven months of 2024, to alleviate trade imbalances.
- On Monday, US President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover all imports, effectively canceling deals with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and others.
- The new executive order builds on the 25% tariff on steel and the 10% tariff the first Trump administration imposed in 2018 by raising duties, closing loopholes and eliminating exemptions, according to a White House official.
USD/INR keeps the constructive view but bulls turn cautious amid a shooting star
The Indian Rupee gains traction on the day. According to the daily chart, the positive view of the USD/INR pair prevails as the price is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that bulls have the upper hand.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches overbought territory beyond the 70.00 mark, potentially signaling a temporary weakness or further consolidation in the near term.
The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges in the 87.95-88.00 zone, representing an all-time high and psychological level. If buyers step in, the pair could see a rally to 88.50.
On the flip side, the initial support level to watch is 87.31, the low of February 7. If bearish momentum persists, the pair could fall back to the 87.05-87.00 regions, representing the low of February 5 and the round mark. Further south, the next contention level is seen at 86.51, the low of February 3.
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retests daily lows near 1.0850 on softer US PPI
EUR/USD remains on the defensive against the backdrop of another positive day in the US Dollar, always amid intense tariff jitters and weaker-than-expected US Producer Prices in February.
Gold looks bid and trades close to $2,950
Gold extends its winning streak, moving toward the $2,950 mark after notching gains over the past two sessions. Heightened fears of an economic downturn, spurred by escalating trade tensions, have fueled a risk-off environment—further boosting the allure of the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.
GBP/USD remains offered near 1.2940 on USD buying
The continuation of the buying interest in the Greenback keeps the risk complex under pressure, motivating GBP/USD to recede to the 1.2940 region and reverse two consecutive days of gains for the time being.
Metaverse narrative stalls as price action fades, but on-chain data signals continuing accumulation
Metaverse tokens are cryptocurrencies associated with virtual worlds, digital economies, and immersive online experiences. Tokens like Sandbox, Decentraland, and Axie Infinity, three of the most prominent assets during the Metaverse boom of 2021, continue to face correction since they topped in early December.
Brexit revisited: Why closer UK-EU ties won’t lessen Britain’s squeezed public finances
The UK government desperately needs higher economic growth as it grapples with spending cuts and potential tax rises later this year. A reset of UK-EU economic ties would help, and sweeping changes are becoming more likely.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.