- The Indian Rupee weakens in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Renewed US Dollar demand and persistent foreign outflows continue to weigh on the INR.
- The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence is due later on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower on Tuesday. The local currency remains under pressure amid US Dollar (USD) demand from oil companies and external foreign investor pressures. The concern over Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows continues to undermine the INR.
However, a likely foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might help limit the INR’s losses. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence will be the highlight later on Tuesday, followed by the FHFA’s House Price Index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak on the same day.
Indian Rupee remains fragile amid global cues and foreign fund outflows
- The RBI will conduct a $10 billion 3-year buy/sell swap on Friday, which would infuse around 870 billion rupees of liquidity in the banking system.
- India's economic growth is estimated to recover in the third quarter of the current financial year 2024-25 (Q3FY25), with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projected at 6.2%, up from 5.4% in Q2FY25, according to the Union Bank of India.
- The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 57.1 in February from 57.5 in January. The Indian Services PMI climbed to 61.1 in February versus 56.5 prior. The Composite PMI rose to 60.6 in February from 57.7 in January.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said late Monday that the US central bank needs more clarity before considering cutting interest rates again.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.03 in January versus 0.18 prior (revised from 0.15).
USD/INR sticks to a positive bias despite consolidation in the near term
The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory for the day. The constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in play as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline near 50.0, suggesting that further consolidation or downside is on the cards.
The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges near the 87.00 psychological level. If the pair keeps printing bullish candlesticks, we could see enough buying pressure to push the price to an all-time high near 88.00, en route to 88.50.
If bullish momentum fizzles and the low of February 12 at 86.35 doesn’t hold as support, the pair might slip under 86.14, the low of January 27. The additional contention level to watch is 85.65, the low of January 7.
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
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