- USD Index retreats from its peak since April marked on Thursday.
- US Dollar (USD) is expected to remain resilient due to economic data from the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in managing inflation without harming the labor market.
- Traders await US CPI data, hoping to gain insights into the inflation outlook.
US Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, trades lower around 104.80 slightly below its peak since April marked on Thursday. However, Improved US Treasury yields could provide support to the strength of the Greenback. The yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.29%, up by 0.66% at the time of writing.
The strength of the US Dollar (USD) continues to be underpinned by economic data from the United States (US), as well as differing outlooks when compared to the Eurozone displaying growing signs of economic distress. The US economy is performing strongly and appears to be on a path toward a gradual and controlled economic slowdown.
Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 2 showed a figure of 216K, better than the market expectations of 234K and coming in lower than the revised figure of 229K from the previous week. This favorable labor market data could play a role in shoring up the resilience of the US dollar.
On Sunday, while returning from the G20 Summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed growing confidence that the US would be able to manage inflation without significant harm to the job market. Yellen also stated, “Every measure of inflation is on the road down.”
Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee has made a statement that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) objective of driving the economy onto a "golden path." This path signifies a scenario in which inflation subsides without causing a recession, a delicate balance that central banks often strive to achieve to maintain economic stability and growth.
In a statement during the last week, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams maintained a flexible stance regarding future US interest rate policies. Williams acknowledged the decline in inflation and noted that the economy is achieving a better balance. This suggests that there may not be an immediate need for a rate hike later this month, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Additionally, investors are eagerly awaiting signals from the Fed regarding its intentions to sustain elevated interest rates over an extended period. Furthermore, traders are expecting that the Fed may enact a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the end of 2023. This hawkish stance taken by the central bank could potentially provide further support for the USD.
Investors will likely monitor the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, scheduled for release on Wednesday. This data is expected to provide valuable insights into the inflation scenario and could influence investor decisions regarding the Greenback.
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