- The index adds to Tuesday’s small advance and revisits 104.80.
- Investors continue to price in rate cuts by the Fed in Q2 2024.
- US inflation figures take centre stage later in the session.
The greenback manages to extend Tuesday’s small rebound to the 104.80 region when gauged by the USD Index (DXY).
USD Index keeps targeting 105.00 and above
The index continues to reclaim ground lost in response to the sharp pullback seen at the beginning of the week.
The so far daily advance in the dollar comes amidst a tepid recovery in US yields across the curve – with the 2-year yields already surpassing the 5% threshold – and firm speculation that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rate at some point in Q2 2024.
In the meantime, investors are expected to closely follow the release of US inflation figures for the month of August, where the headline CPI is seen ticking higher vs. a drop in the Core CPI.
Additionally, usual weekly Mortgage Applications tracked by MBA are also due ahead of the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories.
What to look for around USD
The index extends the bounce off Monday’s marked pullback and revisits the 104.75/80 band on Wednesday ahead of the publication of key US inflation figures.
In the meantime, support for the dollar keeps coming from the good health of the US economy, despite the narrative around the tighter-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve now looks somewhat diminished amidst the current backdrop of persistent disinflation and cooling of the labour market.
Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgage Applications, Inflation Rate, Monthly Budget Statement (Wednesday) – Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Prices, Business Inventories (Thursday) – Industrial Production, Advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persevring debate over a soft or hard landing for the US economy. Incipient speculation of rate cuts in early 2024. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is advancing 0.16% at 104.71 and faces the next up barrier at 105.15 (monthly high September 7) ahead of 105.88 (2023 high March 8) and finally 106.00 (round level). On the other hand, the breach of 103.02 (200-day SMA) would open the door to 102.93 (weekly low August 30) and then 102.70 (55-day SMA).
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