- The index adds to Monday’s gains and revisits 103.80.
- US yields trade on the defensive so far on Tuesday.
- The US services sector will be in the limelight later in the session.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, maintains the optimism seen at the beginning of the week and advances to 103.80 on turnaround Tuesday.
USD Index focuses on key data
The index regains extra buying interest and builds on Monday’s gains in the upper end of the range near 103.80 so far on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, speculation continues apace regarding the prospects of interest rate decreases by the Federal Reserve at some point in the spring of 2024, despite differing perspectives on this issue among Fed policymakers.
In the US calendar, final S&P Global Services PMI is due ahead of the more important ISM Services PMI and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.
What to look for around USD
The index regains poise and gradually approaches the key 104.00 region amidst the persistent weakness in the risk complex.
Looking at the broader picture, the dollar appears depressed against the backdrop of rising speculation of probable interest rate cuts in H1 2024, all in response to further disinflationary pressures and the gradual cooling of the labour market.
Some support for the greenback, however, still emerges the resilience of the US economy as well as a persistent hawkish narrative from some Fed rate setters.
Key events in the US this week: Final S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade (Wednesday) – PCE, Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit Change (Thursday) – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Flash Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Growing perception of a soft landing for the US economy. Speculation of rate cuts at some point in the spring of 2024. Omnipresent geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. Potential spread of the Middle East crisis to other regions.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is up 0.07% at 103.70 and the breakout of 104.21 (weekly high November 22) would open the door to 105.39 (55-day SMA) and finally 106.00 (weekly peak November 10). On the flip side, immediate contention comes at 102.46 (monthly low November 29) ahead of 101.74 (monthly low August 4) and then 100.51 (weekly low July 27).
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