- USD/IDR pares recent gains, stays pressured around intraday low.
- Indonesia Government announces fuel subsidy, crude price range to bring fiscal deficit to 4.3-4.5%.
- Risk-on mood, softer US dollar also underpin the pullback moves.
USD/IDR holds lower grounds near $14,700, after rising the most in two weeks, as the Indonesia Budget Office manages to incentivize Indonesia rupiah (IDR) traders during early Thursday.
That said, Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati expects 2022 inflation close to 4% while also expecting the 2022 average rupiah exchange rate at 14,300-14,700/$.
Other details include a proposal of 234 trillion rupiah in additional fuel subsidies, a proposal to raise 2022 crude price estimate to $95-$105/barrel from $63/barrel and a target 2022 fiscal deficit estimate to 4.3-4.5% of GDP.
Elsewhere, China’s covid conditions and softer US data relating to housing, not to forget repeated calls of the Fed’s 50 bps rate hikes seem to also underpin the US dollar weakness and weigh on the USD/IDR prices.
It’s worth noting, however, that the latest risk-on mood remains doubtful amid broad fears over inflation and growth, which in turn suggests the USD/IDR weakness is illusionary.
Technical analysis
A two-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern, currently between $14,660 and $14,820, limits short-term USD/IDR moves.
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