China FX has front-loaded the China reopening and economists at Société Générale are cautious about chasing a CNY rally.
Neutral on Yuan
“As USD/CNY has already reversed more than 50% of the rise in 2022, it would be necessary to feed more positive surprises to the market to deepen a CNY rally to the 6.30 level, but we are sceptical.”
“Our year-end USD/CNY forecast of 6.80 incorporates a ‘gradual’ turnaround in major policies including Zero-COVID. However, nearly all major policies that were seen as negative to the market have been reversed in the past two weeks.”
“The FX market has selectively front-loaded the positive policy surprises and their future implications for the economy.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD consolidates below 0.6600 amid the US election uncertainty
AUD/USD remains on the defensive below the 0.6600 mark on Tuesday as traders seem reluctant ahead of this week's key event risks – the US presidential election and the FOMC policy meeting. In the meantime, the unwinding of the Trump trade continues to weigh on the USD and offers some support to the currency pair.
EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.0850, all eyes on the US presidential election results
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.0880 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges lower as traders brace for the outcome of the US presidential election and a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which supports some support for the major pair.
Gold price hangs near one-week low; downside seems cushioned ahead of the US election
Gold price remains close to a one-week low set on Monday, though the downside seems limited amid safe-haven demand stemming from the US election uncertainty and talks of an Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel.
RBA widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
Australia’s benchmark interest rate is set to stay unchanged at 4.35% in November. The focus remains on Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s comments and updated economic forecasts. The Australian Dollar could wilt if RBA Governor Bullock ramps up bets for a December rate cut.
US presidential election outcome: What could it mean for the US Dollar? Premium
The US Dollar has regained lost momentum against its six major rivals at the beginning of the final quarter of 2024, as tensions mount ahead of the highly anticipated United States Presidential election due on November 5.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.